Los mercados funcionan / los mercados no funcionan vs incremento de inmigrantes
La lógica económica más básica: los salarios son endógenos.
Si hay pocos españoles que quieren trabajar en los supermercados, pasarán dos cosas. Primero, los supermercados organizarán sus servicios de manera menos intensiva en trabajadores, en parte con automatización y en parte vendiendo comida de una manera diferente (por ejemplo, en vez de abrir de 9 a 8, abrirán solo de 10 a 5).
Segundo, los salarios relativos de los trabajadores en los supermercados subirán, lo que atraerá más empleados al sector. Esto hará que, efectivamente, los precios en los supermercados sean relativamente más altos. Pues muy bien, eso es la asignación correcta de recursos: menos en supermercados y otros bienes y servicios intensivos en mano de obra poco cualificada, más en bienes y servicios menos intensivos en ese tipo de mano de obra.
Por eso, en países como Japón o Corea, que han sido muy restrictivos con la inmigración poco cualificada, no hay problema alguno de mano de obra: los salarios relativos son diferentes. Por supuesto, esto no es lo que te van a contar los empresarios.
Un conocido tiene 10 coches de Uber, todos con conductor marroquí. Cuando le expliqué esto, me respondió, con todo el candor del mundo, que a los salarios más altos que necesitaría pagar para atraer españoles no le compensaba tener 10 Ubers. Pues eso: habría menos Ubers y la gente, lo mismo, tendría que montarse más en el metro.
Pues no pasa nada. Decir que “no habrá gente para trabajar de albañil o en supermercados” es ser un socialista que no cree que los mercados funcionan.
Yo a los hondureños que vienen a cortar la hierba una vez por semana les pago 12$ la hora, con lo cual estarán ganando unos 25k$ al año como mucho. En cambio, los que podan mis árboles o ponen el fertilizante, que cobran 35$ la hora, son todos americanos de origen y familia.
Si cortar la hierba me costase 35$ la hora, tendría cantidad de americanos queriendo hacerlo (como ahora no tengo problema alguno en encontrar podadores). Pero probablemente la cortaría cada dos semanas en lugar de cada una. Eso de que la gente “no quiere hacer trabajos” es un sinsentido. En mayo estuve en Islandia: todos los camareros y limpiadores del hotel eran de Tarragona.
Obviamente, con el sueldo correcto, estaban encantados de trabajar en esos empleos en medio de la nada.
Según Jesus FV ..."Cada negocio que cierra por falta de mano de obra es una victoria de la economía de mercado que celebro abriendo una buena botella de vino. El objetivo del sistema de precios es asignar recursos escasos a usos alternativos de la mejor manera posible. Una empresa que cierra porque no puede pagar salarios suficientes demuestra que no es un uso eficiente ni del trabajo ni del capital invertido en ella. Así que, lejos de ser un contraargumento, para mí el cierre de negocios es el MEJOR argumento.
Cada negocio que cierra por falta de mano de obra es una victoria de la economía de mercado que celebro abriendo una buena botella de vino.
El objetivo del sistema de precios es asignar recursos escasos a usos alternativos de la mejor manera posible.
Una empresa que cierra porque no puede pagar salarios suficientes demuestra que no es un uso eficiente ni del trabajo ni del capital invertido en ella.
Así que, lejos de ser un contraargumento, para mí el cierre de negocios es el MEJOR argumento.
Yo quiero que cierren MÁS negocios por este motivo.
Yo quiero que cierren MÁS negocios por este motivo."
.... yo quisiera maximizar el PIB de España, estaría a favor de traer más inmigrantes. Ese el argumento (incorrecto) de preocuparse de que cierren empresas por no tener mano de obra. Es precisamente porque no quiero maximizar el PIB, sino el bienestar de los españoles, que quiero cerrar las fronteras españolas a la inmigración no cualificada a cal y canto. De hecho, estaría encantado, no, EUFÓRICO, de que el PIB cayese un 5% si abandonan España unos 3-4 millones de inmigrantes poco cualificados. Tendríamos un 5% menos de PIB pero más bienestar.
Si cerramos a la inmigración y se vuelven 3-4 millones de inmigrantes poco cualificados, probablemente el PIB per cápita caería. Estaría EUFORICO que cayese el PIB per cápita. Pero el bienestar de todas las generaciones, mayores y jóvenes, subiría. Ahora los mayores están teniendo cuidadores inmigrantes que sí, incrementan su bienestar, pero están destruyendo el bienestar de los jóvenes.
Me refería a la SUMA del bienestar de las generaciones. Me salté la palabra SUMA.
Sí, el bienestar de los mayores en España ahora mismo caería pero el de las generaciones jóvenes subiría.
Pero es que yo estoy en favor de que el bienestar de los mayores en España caiga.
Por ejemplo, quiero cortar las pensiones (de manera progresiva) al menos un 10%-15%.
Ya sé que esto no lo habrá usted escuchado nunca de nadie (sí, quiero REDUCIR el bienestar de los mayores), pero alguien tiene que ser el adulto en la habitación y decirle a los españoles la verdad.
En 1993 hubo un debate en ICADE, cuando yo era estudiante, sobre emigración. En aquel momento, deje claro que estaba 100% en contra de la inmigración de trabajadores de baja cualificación, algo que sorprendió a todos mis compañeros de promoción y que pueden dar testimonio de ello. Llevo 32 años defendiendo en público lo mismo y no va usted a encontrar una sola declaración mía afirmando que traer emigrantes era una solución para el problema de la seguridad social en España.
No es cuestión de si alguien es nativo o inmigrante. Vivimos en un Estado del bienestar basado en la redistribución: el 70% de los individuos en la parte baja de la distribución recibe transferencias netas de las AAPP, el grupo entre el 71% y el 90% queda más o menos en cero (según factores individuales como la longevidad o la salud) y solo el 10% superior son contribuyentes netos. El 99% de los inmigrantes que llegan a España de fuera de la Unión Europea se sitúan en el 90% inferior de renta: prácticamente todos, salvo algunos profesionales de Chile o Argentina y los futbolistas.
En su día, cuando trabajé en la Oficina Económica del Presidente, hice los números en detalle y cada inmigrante no cualificado suponía una pérdida de unos 200.000 euros a lo largo de su vida. Como era la época de Zapatero, aquello no se publicó.
Los daneses lo han calculado con enorme detalle emplando microdatos y han encontrado el gráfico que incluyo. La inmigración no cualificada y el estado del bienestar son incompatibles.
https://x.com/JesusFerna7026/status/1960494491892068746
Informe
https://t.co/KxZjuGVOmehttps://t.co/wh0QR2PCWR
Atraer inmigración cualificada es buena idea, eso no lo he negado nunca, y EE.UU. ha sido hábil con esto. Pero atraer immigrantes de baja cualificación no es positivo para las cuentas públicas:
New Report Assesses the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration
News Release | September 21, 2016WASHINGTON – A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine provides a comprehensive assessment of economic and demographic trends of U.S. immigration over the past 20 years, its impact on the labor market and wages of native-born workers, and its fiscal impact at the national, state, and local levels.
Among the report’s key findings and conclusions:
- When measured over a period of 10 years or more, the impact of immigration on the wages of native-born workers overall is very small. To the extent that negative impacts occur, they are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born workers who have not completed high school—who are often the closest substitutes for immigrant workers with low skills.
- There is little evidence that immigration significantly affects the overall employment levels of native-born workers. As with wage impacts, there is some evidence that recent immigrants reduce the employment rate of prior immigrants. In addition, recent research finds that immigration reduces the number of hours worked by native teens (but not their employment levels).
- Some evidence on inflow of skilled immigrants suggests that there may be positive wage effects for some subgroups of native-born workers, and other benefits to the economy more broadly.
- Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S.
- In terms of fiscal impacts, first-generation immigrants are more costly to governments, mainly at the state and local levels, than are the native-born, in large part due to the costs of educating their children. However, as adults, the children of immigrants (the second generation) are among the strongest economic and fiscal contributors in the U.S. population, contributing more in taxes than either their parents or the rest of the native-born population.
- Over the long term, the impacts of immigrants on government budgets are generally positive at the federal level but remain negative at the state and local level — but these generalizations are subject to a number of important assumptions. Immigration’s fiscal effects vary tremendously across states.
“The panel's comprehensive examination revealed many important benefits of immigration — including on economic growth, innovation, and entrepreneurship — with little to no negative effects on the overall wages or employment of native-born workers in the long term,” said Francine D. Blau, Frances Perkins Professor of Industrial and Labor Relations and professor of economics at Cornell University, and chair of the panel that conducted the study and wrote the report. “Where negative wage impacts have been detected, native-born high school dropouts and prior immigrants are most likely to be affected. The fiscal picture is more mixed, with negative effects especially evident at the state level when the costs of educating the children of immigrants are included, but these children of immigrants, on average, go on to be the most positive fiscal contributors in the population. We hope our detailed analysis of the evidence will be of use to policymakers and the public as they consider this issue.”
Impacts on Employment, Wages, and the Economy
The panel examined the available evidence on how immigration affects the U.S. labor market and economy and came to the following conclusions.
Effects on wages. When measured over a period of 10 years or more, the impact of immigration on the wages of native workers overall is very small. To the extent that negative wage effects are found, prior immigrants – who are often the closest substitutes for new immigrants – are most likely to experience them, followed by native-born high-school dropouts, who share job qualifications similar to the large share of low-skilled workers among immigrants to the United States.
Effects on employment levels. There is little evidence that immigration significantly affects the overall employment levels of native-born workers. Recent research finds that immigration reduces the number of hours worked by native-born teens (but not their employment rate). As with wage impacts, there is some evidence that low-skilled immigrants reduce the employment rate of prior immigrants – again suggesting a higher degree of substitutability between new and prior immigrants than between new immigrants and natives.
Effects of high-skilled immigrants. Until recently, the impact of high-skilled immigrants on native wages and employment received less attention than that of their low-skilled counterparts; but, as the number of high-skilled immigrant workers has grown, so too has interest in studying their role in the economy. Several studies have found a positive impact of skilled immigration on the wages and employment of both college- and non-college-educated natives. Such findings are consistent with the view that skilled immigrants are often complementary to native-born workers; that spillovers of wage-enhancing knowledge and skills occur as a result of interactions among workers; and that skilled immigrants innovate sufficiently to raise overall productivity.
The role of immigrants in consumer demand. Immigrants’ contributions to the labor force reduce the prices of some goods and services, which benefits consumers in a range of sectors, including child care, food preparation, house cleaning and repair, and construction. Moreover, new arrivals and their descendants are a source of demand in key sectors such as housing, which benefits residential real estate markets.
Impacts on economic growth. Immigration is integral to the nation’s economic growth. The inflow of labor supply has helped the United States avoid the problems facing other economies that have stagnated as a result of unfavorable demographics, particularly the effects of an aging workforce and reduced consumption by older residents. In addition, the infusion of human capital by high-skilled immigrants has boosted the nation’s capacity for innovation, entrepreneurship, and technological change. Research suggests, for example, that immigrants raise patenting per capita, which ultimately contributes to productivity growth. The prospects for long-run economic growth in the United States would be considerably dimmed without the contributions of high-skilled immigrants.
Impacts on Federal, State, and Local Budgets
Beyond wage and employment considerations, policymakers and the general public are interested in the impact that immigration has on public finances and the sustainability of government programs. All parts of the U.S. population contribute to government finances by paying taxes and add to expenditures by consuming public services – but the levels differ. The panel conducted several analyses estimating the fiscal contributions and costs of first-generation immigrants, the second generation (native-born individuals with at least one parent who is an immigrant), and the rest of the native-born U.S. population (referred to in the report as the third-plus generation).
Over the period 1994-2013, the net fiscal contribution (federal, state, and local combined) of first-generation immigrants was, on average, consistently less favorable than that of native-born generations. Annual cross-sectional data reveal that, compared with the native-born, first-generation immigrants contributed less in taxes during working ages because they were, on average, less educated and earned less. However, this pattern reverses at around age 60, when the native-born (except for the children of immigrants) were consistently more expensive to government on a per-capita basis because of their greater use of social security benefits.
During the same 1994-2013 time period, second-generation adults — the children of immigrants — had, on average, a more favorable net fiscal impact for all government levels combined than either first-generation immigrants or the rest of the native-born population. Reflecting their slightly higher educational achievement, as well as their higher wages and salaries, the second generation contributed more in taxes on a per capita basis during working ages than did their parents or other native-born Americans.
Results from these cross-sectional analyses are significantly influenced by the age structures (distribution across age categories) of the different generational groups, which in turn influence the percentage of each group in schooling, in the workforce, and in retirement. These age structures vary significantly from one historical period to another. Results are also driven to a large extent by the assumptions underlying each analysis, especially about the allocation of government expenditures on public goods such as national defense. For example, for scenarios in which military spending is assumed not to increase with additional immigrants, and in which a cost of zero is assigned to them for this benefit, the net fiscal impact of individuals in the first-generation group becomes more positive than that of individuals in the two native-born groups.
In addition to conducting historical analyses, the panel also modeled the impact that adding an immigrant (with characteristics based on an average of recent immigrants) to the U.S. population would have on future public budgets, in order to estimate the future fiscal impacts of immigration. Projected over a future time horizon of 75 years, this analysis found that the fiscal impacts of immigrants are generally positive at the federal level and generally negative at the state and local level. State and local governments bear the burden of providing education benefits to children, including those in immigrant households, but their methods of taxation recoup relatively little of the later contributions from the resulting educated taxpayers. Federal benefits, in contrast, are largely provided to the elderly, so the relative youthfulness of arriving immigrants, who are often working and paying taxes, means that they tend to be beneficial to federal finances.
The panel’s analysis of state- and local-level data indicates that the net impact of immigration on fiscal balance sheets varies tremendously across jurisdictions. Consistent with findings in the national level analyses, first- generation adults (and their dependents) tend to be more costly to state and local governments on a per capita basis than adults (and their dependents) in the second generation or in other native-born generations. In general, second-generation adults contribute the most of any generation to the bottom line of state balance sheets.
The analysis also reveals that an immigrant and a native-born person with similar characteristics will likely have about the same fiscal impact. Persons with higher levels of education contribute more positively to government finances, regardless of whether they are an immigrant or are native born.
Trends in Immigration
More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, immigrants and their children comprise almost one in four Americans. The panel examined key developments and trends in immigration over the past two decades.
Education. Educational attainment has increased steadily over the past few decades for both recent immigrants and the native-born, although the former still have about 0.8 years less of schooling on average than do the latter. The foreign-born are overrepresented in both the population with less than a high school education and the population with more than a four-year college education, particularly among computer, science, and engineering workers with advanced degrees.
Labor force. The portion of the labor force that is foreign-born has risen from about 11 percent to just over 16 percent in the last 20 years. Immigrants and their children will account for the vast majority of current and future workforce growth – which, at less than 1 percent annually, is slow by historical standards.
Legal immigration. Annual flows of lawful permanent residents into the U.S. have increased in recent decades. During the 1980s, just under 600,000 immigrants were admitted legally (received green cards) each year. After the 1990 Immigration Act took effect, legal admissions increased to just under 800,000 per year. Since 2001, legal admissions have averaged just over 1 million per year.
Unauthorized immigration. The estimated number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States roughly doubled from about 5.7 million in 1995 to about 11.1 million in 2014. The number of unauthorized immigrants arriving in the U.S. reached more than 800,000 annually by the first five years of the 21st century but decreased dramatically after 2007; partly as a result, the unauthorized immigrant population shrank by about 1 million over the next two years. Since 2009, the unauthorized immigrant population has remained stable, with about 300,000 to 400,000 new unauthorized immigrants arriving each year and about the same number leaving.
The study was sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences Independent Fund, the National Academy of Engineering Independent Fund, and the National Academy of Medicine Independent Fund. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions related to science, technology, and medicine. The Academies operate under an 1863 congressional charter to the National Academy of Sciences, signed by President Lincoln. For more information, visit http://national-academies.org. A committee roster follows.
Social Media:
#NASEMimmigration
Contacts:
Dana Korsen, Media Officer
Rebecca Ray, Media Assistant
Office of News and Public Information
202-334-2138; e-mail news@nas.edu
Copies of The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration are available from the National Academies Press on the Internet at www.nap.edu or by calling 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242. Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed above).
https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2016/09/new-report-assesses-the-economic-and-fiscal-consequences-of-immigration
"Immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S." según usted, no ha contribuido en nada a que US tenga la economía mas dinamica y rica de los ultimos 120 años (sino más)
Si pero depende de los motivos por los cuales acaban cerrando empresas,casos sectoriales,cuando no se pueden pagar los mismos salarios que otros países, como paso en el textil en los 80, en mi ciudad desaparecieron el 90 %,muchas de ellas no eran " tan malas" al ser centenarias.
Todo ese efecto viene de la inmigración cualificada.
“El 99% de los inmigrantes que llegan a España de fuera de la Unión Europea se sitúan en el 90% inferior de renta: prácticamente todos, salvo algunos profesionales de Chile o Argentina y los futbolistas.”
Por esto esto tampoco es la solución:
https://www.eleconomista.es/retail-consumo/noticias/13517224/08/25/la-patronal-de-el-corte-ingles-carrefour-e-ikea-urge-un-plan-de-inmigracion-para-traer-trabajadores-y-cubrir-16000-vacantes.html
https://articulosclaves.blogspot.com/2025/08/la-patronal-de-el-corte-ingles.html
https://articulosclaves.blogspot.com/2025/08/la-patronal-de-el-corte-ingles.html
https://articulosclaves.blogspot.com/2025/08/los-consumidores-entienderan-que-con-su.html
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